VOX POPULI

Or

OPinionatED

by

 Aam Admi

Issue: 161                                         Date:  25.07.2016

Contents:

1.       Foreigners & Crimes In Goa

2.       Mesquita's Outpourings on Goa's Casinos

3.       The State of The Nation: Economy

Foreigners & Crimes In Goa

The newspapers recently carried information that some 400 odd foreigners who were out on bail in Goa, are absconding, the majority among them being Nigerians. Sometime back there was more news about Nigerians being caught with drugs and another among them involved in the abduction and rape of a local woman in broad daylight and later intercepted while on his way to Mumbai. We have also had the infamous incident of a group of Nigerians blocking NH17 at O'Cocqueiro circle for almost a whole day in 2013 over the killing of one of their compatriots. all these incidents were in Goa. Apart from these we have many a incident where foreigners not necessarily all Nigerians or those of African origin dying of drug overdose. 

Looking at all these CM Parsekar in one of his rare moments of talking sense upbraided the Nigerians and said that they are a menace to Goan society. For this he was castigated by mostly the national press for singling out a community and showing intolerance. However the truth is that these foreigners including the Nigerians come here and disrupt the peace in our towns and villages. If the foreigners come to live here by assimilating into the local milieu and go about their business, there is no problem. In fact that is what Indians who emigrate overseas including Africa do by pursuing their jobs and trying to be responsible members of the country where they migrate to.  But unfortunately the foreigners in Goa become a nuisance by peddling drugs, disrupting peaceful life by getting into scrapes and involving themselves in petty crimes.

Some of the involvement in crime is done by these foreigners knowingly since they are aware that the wheels of justice in India turn slowly and that they cannot be deported until the case has been resolved. Most of the foreigners in Goa come on student visas and educational institutions should be advised to seek police certification stating no pending cases exist against them, prior to giving admission. 

To tackle this problem of foreigners, we need to take action to first show that we have some spine. By this it is meant that when these foreigners cross the boundaries and indulge in unacceptable behaviour, they should be persuaded to correct themselves failing which they should be soundly thrashed.. Not to the extent of the US citizen who was thrashed to death by villagers sometime back near Mapusa for irregular behaviour, but enough so that they do not repeat the offences. Unfortunately the situation on Goa is that we tend to fall at the feet of outsiders mostly foreigners since they bring with them the only God that most Goans see these days and that is money. To protect the Goan ethos, our culture, our way of life, we need to change. 

Secondly, in this age of social media incidents like those mentioned above should be widely publicised so that public opinion is built up against the offending foreigners and their nationality, This will bring to the fore that action taken against these foreigners is justifiable. The local media covers covers these cases and it also comes on TV if the incident is a major one like blocking the NH17. But with publicising these incidents on social media every Goan would be raising the cudgel to clean up our society from the actions of these offenders. 

Thirdly, some mechanism need be found to fast-track the cases involving foreigners in our courts so that justice is dispensed and if the accused are found guilty they can be deported. We could have an automatic system that in the case of a second offence within a year and up to 3 years is registered against a foreigner he/she can be summarily deported since obviously, the offender is trying to work the system for himself. This will encourage foreigners to be  on the right side of the law. Once  deported they should not be allowed by our Immigration authorities to come back.   

A related issue that the news item relating to foreigners mentioned that there is no proper detention centre to hold foreigners until they are deported and hence they are enlarged on bail. Now look at this situation, Goa from the years that it has become liberated almost a half a century and more now has been boasting about its foreign tourists who come in numbers of lakhs and more. We have also known that these foreigners get involved in crimes and may require to be deported, but for 50 years we have not set up a detention centre for them! This is rather sad and absolutely a lapse on the part of our authorities. Thus the earlier we organise for one it is better. 

Postscript: This situation as above is seen across all urban settlements of India particularly those known as educational centres like Pune. A code need to be put in place that if you come to work or study then you should behave as such with decency and decorum failing which you should be prepared for deportation.  The High Commissioner of Nigeria at Delhi is aware of this problem and on one of his visits to Mumbai last week met the Commissioner of Police, Mumbai on the problem of Nigerians getting involved in crime in the city. The High Commissioner has asked the Mumbai police to act strictly with Nigerians who get caught in crime.

Mesquita's Outpourings on Goa's Casinos

Prologue: In Goa the advent of the casinos both on-shore and off-shore was during the Congress regime.  The on-shore casinos are located in 5-star hotels which can have only gambling by slot machines and the like. While the off-shore casinos on board the ships have additionally live gaming like card games etc. The casino ships that should have been out at sea by virtue of being off-shore, using a lacunae in the law passed by the Goa government as also through corruption have managed to anchor their ships in the river Mandovi at Panaji rather than in the sea. These ships clutter up the narrow navigable channel of the river that is used by barges, fishing trawlers, sunset cruise ships and limited other vessels that use the river. At one point of time there were six casino ships anchored off the Mandovi riverfront which has since come down to three functional and one inoperative casino. When once the casinos were asked to move into the sheltered Aguada Bay the casino owners claimed the ships were not sea-worthy! But they still claim to be off-shore casinos.  

The casinos, both on-shore and off-shore, have been considered a pain by local civil society and at various times political parties (suiting their convenience), NGO's, public interest groups and respected citizens have voiced their objection to the casinos and campaigned to ban the casinos and at the least have the casino ships moved out of the Mandovi river considering that the ships discharge their effluents  and garbage generated into the river thus polluting it. The ills that the casinos bring like rise in crime, prostitution and drug trade have been highlighted along with ownership of some of the casinos being linked with organised crime. Some Goan families also have become ruined with their members becoming addicted to gambling. There is also no regulation covering the casinos and there is every chance that the gaming machines and the live games of chance are tweaked to favour the owners at the cost of the gamers. A Gaming Commissioner was promised some 5 years ago who would bring in some control in the casino operations and protect the interests of the gaming public which has not seen the light of day. 

When Manohar Parrikar was in the Opposition almost a decade ago he had raised a voice against the casinos in the Legislative Assembly and also led public protests on the streets asking for a ban on casinos and that the casino ships should vacate the Mandovi river. However, upon coming to power again in 2012 Manohar Parrikar and the BJP started singing a different tune. They were now talking about how there would be a loss of revenue if the casinos were closed and considering that thereafter mining in Goa was stopped in 2013, it was stated that the government financially would be in dire straits. Mining and tourism are the two major revenue streams for Goa. The BJP's position currently is that they did not give permissions to the casinos to start but that they are now left saddled with a problem that was not of their creation. Other arguments of the BJP to keep the  casinos are enumerated later. 

With Parrikar leaving for Delhi to become the Defence Minister we have now the new Chief Minister in Goa, Laxmikant Parsekar, who is a bit more vocal in coming to the defence of the casinos and in keeping the casino ships in the  river Mandovi at Panaji. The CM has said the other day that it was the casinos that saved Goa's economy when mining was stopped. Earlier quoted figures of Rs. 50 crores per year revenue to the Goa government from casinos have been hiked to Rs. 200 crores to bolster the 'saviour' argument. Thus you can imagine how an elected government defends avenues of revenue from gambling from a source like casinos, clearly a vice and a blot on our society, in present-day India. In terms of numbers the casinos do not contribute greatly to Goa's tourist figures. But there is no doubt that black money is being laundered through the casinos in Goa and this at a time when Modi's government at the Centre is unveiling schemes to unearth black money and stop its proliferation. This is what is happening in present day India where governments of the same hue like the Centre and in Goa both BJP-led, are working at cross-purposes. Goa is fast turning into one of those Wild West territories which America had in the past, some one and a half centuries ago,, with the attraction of towns and human settlements being indexed by how good the bordellos or prostitute houses were and where in the saloons you could imbibe unlimited alcohol and gamble on a 24/7 basis.

Mesquita's Outpourings

Wilfred Mesquita, politician and currently Commissioner, Non-Resident Goan Affairs with the status of a Cabinet Minister in the present BJP government but who in the past while with the Congress was also a Cabinet Minister when casinos were first allowed in Goa. His present outpourings of regret and repentance seem to be well-timed with the upcoming Assembly elections to get him on the right side of the voters so that they press the button on the 'right side' of his name on the EVM Ballot Board. 

Whatever Mesquita said in the interview speaks of his lack of sagacity and ability to see the future when it comes to assessing situations like the casinos. For one who has been so long in public life, this is really a sad state of affairs. One wonders why instead of venting his views through the media, he did not go to his own party, the BJP and his CM, and got the casinos in Goa wound up? Or is this it that CM Parsekar does not listen to his own party people? That was established when Rajendra Arlekar, the Environment & Forests Minister, and also long-time friend of CM Parsekar and who brought tears to the CM's eyes at the latter's recent birthday celebrations by recounting personal reminiscences, found that his order to move the new casino ship from Ribandar to protect the Salim Ali bird sanctuary was countermanded within hours by the CM. So, then, one can ask - Who's Mesquita?

When Parsekar is asked about the casinos, he will as usual launch into his standard spiel of the revenue brought in by the casinos, the need to protect the casinos investment, that they may go to the courts and what signal will we give new  investors if the casinos are wound up? This comes out as a recorded message at the press of a button from CM Parsekar. On hearing this one is tempted to ask if he is the CM of Goa or CM of Casinos? Or is it that he has been rehearsed with this speech by the Super CM (Manohar Parrikar) and instructed not to move away from the printed script? Concluding one can only wish Mesquita all the best on his views on the casinos and on his attempts to close them down. Note that Mesquita is talking when there is news now that the casino ships may be moved to Chicalim, his backyard reflecting the Not In My Backyard Syndrome. 

The State of The Nation: Economy

While recognising the milestone of 25 years of the launch of economic reforms in India, we need to be aware that after the initial push, we have in fact gone backwards on the reforms front particularly over the last 2 years. In fact Narendra Modi's BJP government which had promised to be different from the earlier UPA regime and bring in 'ache din' (that seems an apt spelling for achhe looking at present reality) by delivering effective governance and reducing corruption, has in its two years at the helm of affairs been looking more and more as if nothing has changed in government and in the perception of governance among the common people.

The major failure of this government has been in the handling of the economy. It is said that it is difficult to understand the working of the Indian economy and to manage it. No one has really been able to ride this elephant and say that he has been successful. Many stalwarts have fallen by the wayside from T T Krishnamachari to Jaswant Singh and Yeshwant Sinha over these six decades. To some extent one could say that Manmohan Singh, Pranab Mukherji and P Chidambaran did get a handle on it but not for long. Maybe this impression exists about them since the economy was already on the move under their tenure and there was no special effort required on their part to coax it to pilot it.

While commonly the elephant has been used to depict the Indian economy, its picture is more like that of a reluctant and irritable water buffalo who in spite of the best of efforts to pull it out of the water is unwilling and fights to remain in the muck and sloth of the swamp around it. The comfort of which only a water buffalo would know. Therefore its view has been who is this upstart called Jaitley, more an advocate than an economics or finance man, to try and manage it. Thus the water buffalo and by analogy, the Indian economy has preferred to lay down on its side and refuse to budge. 

What is the present state of the economy: GDP figures are in major doubt and with the corrective factors applied, could be just 1 – 2%; industrial growth has been stagnant for the last year or more with the capital goods and infrastructure sector in some quarters being negative; we will not talk of agriculture because this government refuses to look at it and prefers to stay by the abiding excuse of bad monsoon; services sector which was a boom sector a few years ago has also shown negative growth; exports have been falling for the last three quarters leading to a demand for devaluation of the Rupee;  job growth has been stagnant if not negative; most of the public sector banks along with some of the private sector banks are in the red stuck with non-performing assets (NPA); inflation like a gas balloon has been rising consistently leading to everything in the marketplace being beyond the reach of the common man particularly food items like pulses, vegetables and fruits.

And in this scenario what does our Finance Minister do or say in the last few months: tries to appropriate employee savings in Provident Funds by stopping withdrawals, it is the money of the employees which the government is trying to stop; states that with banks paying high interest rates on deposits, the cost of operations of banks has been going up and therefore these interest rates should be brought down, little realising that a large part of India survives on interest income at these times of hyper-inflation; that Indian black money abroad has already seen trends of going down – curious fact that, sometime back no one knew how much black money was there abroad  from India and suddenly Arun Jaitley is able to see this declining? Little does he realize that the black money that he has limited visibility on may have been shifted to more friendly and secure non-tax havens which his outdated binoculars are not able to zoom on to.

Other than that some of the other pronouncements coming out of this government are that vehicles beyond 12 or 15 years old will not be allowed to ply on the roads and the government will give a trade-in value for these old vehicles when you buy a new one. This is a stupid rule since everyone cannot afford to buy a new vehicle particularly retirees. Where public transport is scarce, older people will be stuck in their homes unable even to obtain basic necessities from the market for the lack of a vehicle. Also there will be no vintage car races because no vintage cars will be there in this Utopia of India which this government is imagining where scenarios like in George Orwell’s 1984 or The Emperor’s New Clothes fable will prevail.

If you put all these above comments together the best thing is that this government is doing nothing but slowly culling the population like first farmers who are killing themselves dime a dozen, then urban poor since in the newspapers you see sporadic incidents of people staying alone or without family support killing themselves for no apparent reason but maybe because with no income to put body and soul together they feel it is best to kill themselves to end the problem; then the middle class category and lastly the retirees. For this the  government can come out in the open and announce the launch of a new initiative – The National Own Your Noose Program or the Rasthriya Gale Phaas Yojana, wherein ropes will be given free so that the people with the inclination and those having the facility can hang themselves. This will leave this government with the mix of population that they desire.

In fact Arun Jaitley should have been removed from being Finance Minister in the last reshuffle itself since he is completely a square peg in a round hole. He has no connect with people at the grassroots level to be sensitive to the needs of the common man. And how will he be able to do that? With assets of Rs. 43 crores, how can he understand the plight of people who have to make do with Rs. 4300 a month, a factor arrived at by dividing a lakh from his asset value. That is the scale of his perception since the aam admi to him looks like ants, hurrying and scurrying here and there in its quest of putting body and soul together. Thus Jaitley is in the stars while the aam admi is on the ground on Bharat Desh ki Dharti, shortly to lose life and become smoke and dust and his  soul will pass Jaitley on its way towards the heavens. The situation on the ground currently across India is a complete disconnect of the government with the common people with the PM leading from the front in manufacturing figures from GDP, to the numbers  of new jobs created etc. etc. which is reminiscent of the times when the BJP drove the The India Shining election plank and lost miserably. 

For the Indian economy what we need is a Finance Minister who is willing to call a spade a spade and clean up the banking system and establish accountability at its senior levels, give confidence to industry thereafter to re-commence investment, pilot FDI in the proper sectors to strengthen the economy on a long-term basis thus creating jobs for our unemployed youth in the wake of a fast-changing international environment which is not going to see any dramatic growth for years to come to stimulate our stagnant exports. The Indian market is strong and large enough to ward off international economic woes and give us a consisten growth of anywhere between 6 - 8%.

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VOX POPULI

Or

OPinionatED

by

 Aam Admi

Issue: 160                                  Date:  18.07.2016

Contents:

1.       The Nice Attack

2.       The Judiciary Gives Modi Government A Bloody Nose

3.       Attacks on Blacks In The US

4.       Tying Modi Down To 7, RCR

The Nice Attack

The two terror attacks in France in the space of a few months with  the recent one in Nice is something that at least that country does not deserve. More so the horrifying nature of the Nice attack in mowing down people who were celebrating a national holiday shows up the callous and twisted mind of the perpetrator. In the early 80's France from among its EU partners of Germany and the U.K. was the country which had seamlessly integrated people of other nationalities mostly coloured people from their earlier colonies in Africa and people of Asian origin like from Vietnam into its society. They were just like the French for all practical purposes and no one queried them on their religion. The situation thereafter is somewhat unknown since France had its share of controversies in recent years like with wearing the hijab, race riots in some of the areas near Paris and then the attack on the Charlie Hebdo magazine. As said earlier France does not deserve such attacks since these will only be detrimental to the interests of the immigrants and the generous heart of the French will be slowly becoming closed to immigrants. Thus those planning such attacks and the IS by connection is engaging in a program which is self-defeating. The increased number of such attacks and the varied instruments used as also the method of execution will lead to other terrorists and IS sympathisers to use these methods and experiment with newer ways to maximise the impact of such terror attacks which is an unfortunate thing for civil society around the world.

The Judiciary Gives Modi Government A Bloody Nose

The rebuffs that the Central government led by the BJP, first in toppling the duly elected Uttarakhand government and now the Nagaland government are like giving Narendra Modi a bloody nose. Where he should have concentrated in delivering governance and in projecting a tolerant Centre when dealing with State governments led by other parties, he and Amit Shah in their over-arching ambitious and grandiose style got carried away in believing that the 'king' can do no wrong. The lessons taught by the judiciary in these two matters will surely go a long away in Modi's continuing political education. Maybe if Modi had been more in the country then he would have possibly been able to apply his mind to such and many other situations to save embarrassment to himself and his government. The Uttarakhand and the Nagaland matters in boxing parlance are the two consecutive straight lefts to the face to rock this Modi government on its heels waiting for the right hook in the form of the UP Assembly election results for a knockout that will see it operating as a lame duck government until the end of its term.

Attacks on Blacks In The US

The number of incidents where black people are being intercepted and pulled up by the police and more often than not shot has been on the rise in recent times in the US. The two recent attacks where a black died in each culminated in the Dallas sniper shootings of policemen by the black US Army reservist. The attacks on the blacks are across the US spanning both coasts and show the deep bias that US law enforcement people have against the black people. On the one hand you see the black people bringing laurels to the country in sport while on on the other hand in the streets they are shot as lowly criminals. In spite of having a black President in Barrack Obama there has been no respite in the number of such fatal attacks against blacks. In fact Barrack Obama has done precious little to raise the banner of black people in the US and get them accepted in the society as equals by white middle class America. Just like we have a caste bias in our society, there is a clear colour bias in the  US. So if you analyse deeply, every country around the world is having its own bias, each to his own.

Tying Modi Down To 7, RCR

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is off again on a 4 nation, 5 day trip to Africa after his recent 5 nation trip that included the US. It must be a record anywhere in the world for the head of government to be away from his country in the short span that Modi has been in office. This has led to levity wherein he is called a 'visiting' Prime Minister or when he arrives in Parliament and looks to fasten his seat belt before settling down into his seat. Affairs of governance do not seem to keep him in the country where his presence is much needed. Maybe we need to find a way by which one can domesticate Modi and tie him down to 7, Racecourse Road longer.

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VOX POPULI

Or

OPinionatED

by

 Aam Admi

Issue: 159                      Date:  11.07.2016

Contents:

1.       India Has Got 3 New Castes

2.       24/7 Working of Commercial Establishments & Of Women Not A Good Idea

3.       The 7^th Pay Commission Will Create Problems

India Has Got 3 New Castes

We have this case in Goa where the Chief Minister's brother-in-law, Mavalankar, working in GIDC - Goa Industrial Dev Corpn, was caught red-handed while accepting a bribe of Rs. 50,000/- for allotting an industrial plot to an industrialist. While Mavalankar was arrested at the time of the incident, he has since been re-instated in his post at GIDC while the investigating police official and the SP in the ACB - Anti Corruption Bureau involved in the case have been transferred out. Mavalankar was re-instated by the Industries Secretary over the heads of the top management of the GIDC. While this is a clear case of misuse of office by the Chief Minister Laxmikant Parsekar, he has defended the re-instatement claiming that procedures were followed and that Mavalankar should not be victimised just because he is the CM's relative. The comment by the CM about the police officials transfer was that their terms were over in those posts and the due transfers were routine. Strange coincidence that! This is clearly turning the matter on its head since the proper procedure was that Mavalankar should have been kept under suspension until the investigation was complete and if proved innocent, he could have been re-instated. This matter shows the obstinate attitude, obduracy and pig-headedness that is exhibited by our politicians not only in Goa but across the country in recent times since they seem to believe that there is a separate justice system for them. If you ponder on this matter, the politicians may be correct since in modern India three more castes have been introduced in our society - the politicians, the wealthy and the well-connected. These categories of people are of the firm belief that any rules of our society like law and order do not apply to them and they are immune to action taken by the authorities and/or the judiciary.  Politicians believe that the immunity is theirs by right, while the wealthy think it can be purchased and the well-connected believe that it can be managed for them. This is the reason for political dynasties to continue since if they leave politics then the immunity goes away. With the wealthy as long as they have the money, they can purchase the immunity. Around us you will find everyone aspiring to be well-connected since that earns them the immunity. Strange indeed are the ways of life in present day India. Postscript: If you look at the race strife that has struck the US in recent times culminating in the Dallas sniper shootings, you will notice that the US also has the three new castes cited above and added to that is colour. So every country around the world is caste-ridden, each to his own, and it is not that we in India only have it. But maybe the manner in which we enforce caste in our society particularly in our rural settings is something that is very distressing.

24/7 Working of Commercial Establishments & Of Women Not A Good Idea

A couple of months ago the government announced a regulation allowing women to work in the night shift. The idea behind this was that women should be given equal employment opportunities compared to men. The move is laudable but then it is fraught with danger. Across India our society is unable to provide security to women and ensure their safety in normal hours and then how can we believe that they will be safe during the night hours? We have seen the mushrooming number of incidents of women being assaulted and raped around the country from age 5 years to 62 years with the cases even rivaling in brutality the Nirbhaya case in Delhi sometime back. We have also had cases of women being raped at night on the Mumbai suburban train network. Thus when the government is unable to provide safe transportation and security for women at night it does not make any sense in allowing then to work on 24/7 basis.

In the same light needs to be seen the recent regulation which gives relaxation to shopping malls, cinema complexes and commercial establishments to remain open on a 24/7 basis. This is understood to have been done so that employment is given a boost assuming that if these establishments remain open through the night they will create more jobs. Here again the issue of safety of people is involved both of the public and those working in these establishments. The same problem of having public transportation through the night is crucial since not everyone has their own transport or can afford a Uber or Ola cab, not that they are completely safe. If a blanket sanction is given for commercial establishments to remain open round the clock we will see a spurt in crime including a sharp rise in assault and rape cases against women.

The 24/7 working proposal is well conceived but needs to be implemented with caution in stages or on a piecemeal basis. Nowhere in the world do you have all establishments open through the night across the city.  Thus certain parts like downtown areas in our urban centres where the entertainment and eating outlets are located can remain open in the night. In fact the choice can be left to these establishments up to what time they would function since they know best what is good for their business. Essential services like pharmacies can be allowed to remain open on 24/7 basis though the choice can be left to them. The same applies to wholesale markets which could function to their peak business times which extend to the wee hours of the night. Thus it is best that in the framework of the government approval to operate round the clock, the commercial establishments themselves decide on an individual basis or on a locality or association basis decide how late they would function. This would also leave the police to breathe easy since they are already overstretched to deliver on their responsibilities to prevent and limit crime and of maintaining law and order. The government is also advised to refrain from announcing measures without rationally thinking out the ramifications these will have on the female members of our society. 

  

The 7^th Pay Commission Will Create Problems

The current BJP led NDA government came into office on the promise of a lean government that would concentrate on governance. Now with two years having passed the present regime seems to have thrown these promises out of the window. This assertion is being made based on the fact that a couple of months back the government announced that it had decided to recruit another 200,000 people for its various departments over the next 3 years. Then lately it has announced pay hikes to government employees by accepting the recommendations of the 7^th Pay Commission. It is another matter that the central government and the railway-men unions have not accepted the quantum of increase given them in this round and have threatened to go on strike since they want more of a wage increase!

The 7^th Pay Commission will not be limited to Central Government staff alone since progressively it will be implemented for staff  in State Government and also quasi- government institutions. This will lead to a massive outflow of money on a recurring monthly basis as also towards payment of arrears. Though at this time with the 7^th Pay Commission being applicable from Jan 2016, the arrears and their impact on the economy are relatively less. However what the government is not taking into account is the fact that this salary hike for employees in the government and the public sector will have repercussions in the private sector. There will be pressure by the employees in this category for increases in salary which the small industries and MSME sectors will find it difficult to grant. The same applies to the services industry where at the lower rungs, employers may not be able to hike salaries so easily. The banking sector will follow with their demands for salary hikes and in fact the bank unions have called for a strike on this issue shortly. Thus implementing the 7^th Pay Commission will bring in tension and uncertainty in the workplace which is not desirable particularly at this juncture since both, industry and the services sector, are not growing.

It is a known fact that our government departments are overstaffed and it is also known that the efficiency of government functioning has not improved over the last decade or more and definitely not over the two years that this NDA government has been in office. Therefore the salary increase is completely unwarranted. Moreover with industrial production showing stagnation it will only fuel inflation. It is expected that more money in the hands of the people through the salary hikes will give a boost to demand. But this is not likely to happen since industry is stuck with lack of confidence to do fresh investment and is tied down with the banking system in resolving their existing lines of credit embroiled as NPA's. We will thus be left with a situation of stagflation with prices spiraling sky high and uncontrollably. It will then not be long before we end up like Venezuela of some or the countries of Africa where food is beyond the affordable level of the people let alone other daily necessities. What the government needs to realize that there is a larger world outside the salaried and pensioned sector who are not protected by salary or emolument hikes. Like the urban poor and those involved in agriculture, where growth has been stagnating either because of bad monsoon or structural reasons and there is less money in the hands of the rural people. Again retirees who are not part of pension plans. All these people will be impacted severely with the expected inflation from implementation of the 7th Pay Commission recommendations. It may be the question of even starvation for some of these kind of people.

The seeds of inflationary tendencies in the Indian economy were sown by the UPA when they implemented the 6^th Pay Commission's recommendations. At that time it was thought that the government employees had not got a raise for quite a long time and they should be given the salary increase to fight rising prices. It was also thought that a hike in salaries would reduce corruption since the belief was that if the employees could make ends meet by legitimate means, they would resort to lesser demands for bribes etc. This was the salary model that was followed in Singapore, where the government employees are paid handsomely and Ministers are paid equivalent if not higher than a CEO in a private sector firm, thus almost eliminating corruption. But despite the 6^th Pay Commission wage hikes, corruption in India while interacting with government employees did not go down. Thus again going through a raise with the 7^th Pay Commission is completely unnecessary and in fact wasteful.

Even with the 6^th Pay Commission there had been recommendations by economists that the wage hike could be linked to productivity benchmarks for the government employees. Additionally it was recommended that the salary arrears payable could be kept in fixed deposits which could be withdrawn after a period of 3 years at the choice of the employee. This measure would have ensured that government was infused with efficiency and the inflationary impact of the arrears could be contained.  This was not done and the foundation for a high inflation economy was set at that time which effects we are seeing today. In fact even for the 7^th Pay Commission the same thing should be done and productivity-linked wages should be hammered out with the unions and the arrears kept safely in fixed deposits to contain inflation.

Instead of doing that Arun Jaitley, Finance Minister, who is more of an advocate than a finance man or an economist, has already had meetings with the Central Government unions promising a hike in the minimum wage from Rs. 18,000 a month. He has also the other day while speaking of the banking sector woes stated that the savings rate for bank deposits should be cut since that raises the cost of operation of the banks. With 46% of India’s savings in bank deposits, Jaitley’s suggestion is that these should be moved out to investments in shares, mutual funds, bonds etc. which are essentially are floating market devices. This is completely stupid since those who desire fixed income from bank deposits should not be forced to consider moving their savings to riskier methods of investments. There is a large population mostly among the middle-class who are not pensionaries and who depend on the steady income from bank and postal deposits but who unfortunately do not have a voice since they are not a vote bank. This category of people will be thrown into uncertainty by the Finance Minister’s utterances which clearly outlines what the future will bring. This class of people is already seeing the impact of inflation on their savings which will be further diminished or made risky by the government’s new policies.

Thus overall the 7^th Pay Commission recommendations should be scrapped or at least held in abeyance so that they do not further add an impetus to inflation which has been plaguing our economy for long. The recommendations are also to be seen as a populist measure on the eve of elections to States like UP which are critical for the BJP to win for comfortably passing legislation in Parliament. Another aspect of this wage increase for government employees is that Parliament in the next session will be seeing a bill to raise the salaries and allowances of our MP’s. Thus the Finance Minister can claim that having implemented the 7^th Pay Commission recommendations for the people what wrong have the MP’s done and do they not deserve compensation for rising prices? This is how our country works with those wielding the reins of power driving the horse to where it is most advantageous for them.

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Vox Populi Issue 158

VOX POPULI

by

 Aam Admi

Issue: 158                             Date:  04.07.2016

Contents:

1.       Subramaniam Swamy At It Again

2.       Indian Banking System: A Case For Hercules After Cleaning The Aegean Stables

3.        India’s Overtures To USA: A Foreign Policy Disaster In The Making

Subramaniam Swamy At It Again

The PM's comment on Subramaniam Swamy's attacks on RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan and other Finance Ministry officials including a veiled attack on Arun Jaitley,  is too little, too late. Admonishments need be timely which is the first thing a teacher learns while handling children. If reprimands are belated the child knows that the teacher is not serious or that the teacher can be taken advantage of.  With adults the situation is no different and the same rule applies and more so with those who are in politics. The validity of the premise is confirmed by the fact that Subramaniam Swamy, the loose cannon that he is has started off again tweeting first, philosophy and then continuing where he left off on the RBI Governor. The PM has to lay down the line firmly so that people know that he means business.  

Indian Banking System: A Case For Hercules After Cleaning The Aegean Stables

The NPA's at banks have led to their showing financial distress with the balance sheets over the last three quarters streaked in red. This has happened for both the public sector as well as the private sector banks.  The largest defaulter with the Indian banking system is the much beleaguered Vijay Mallya of the Kingfisher group who has been in the news for the last few months. Following him closely in terms of the size of loan defaults is the Jaypee group who are at the present moment in discussions with banks to restructure their debt. It is said that 400 Cos., among which are the Who's Who of Indian industry, account for more than 80% of the NPA's with the Indian banks. That is sufficient indication of the malaise with industry which has been laggard with growth for the last six months and more. Unless the banks find a solution to their loan recoveries and start lending again under maybe new terms, it is doubtful whether any industrial growth will happen in this financial year. This in turn will affect the GDP growth which Arvind Panagariya, Vice Chairman, Niti Aayog is positioning at in excess of 8%! If talk could pump up stock markets sometimes, it is naive for our government economists to believe that economic figures will also go the same way. 

However, if we want to move ahead what we need to do is to establish accountability in our banking system. It was the bankers who sanctioned the loans to industry and it is they who are responsible for recovery of the amounts. Like fair-weather friends, they cannot enjoy themselves while the going was good and when the milk sours throw up their hands and ask the government to step in. This is precisely what has happened with leading bankers seeking immunity from the CBI and the CVC if they are to involve in re-structuring the industrial and service industry loans so that repayment can start. This is like seeking a carte blanche to persist with the connivance between bankers and industry that is well-known.The Chairperson of the State Bank of India went a step further while giving testimony lately to a Parliamentary Committee enquiring into loans given to industry. When the Kingfisher group defaults came up she said that a political solution need to be found to arrive at a settlement. When the loans were sanctioned did they seek the concurrence of their political masters? Then why are they coming now to the government seeking a political solution. If they are helpless in recovering the loans or finding a solution to the mess that they created let them say so and then the government can take action to establish if these bankers are proved to be conniving and/or incompetent. If there has been contravention of rules then disciplinary action per banking rules should be taken against them. This is being stated since if one takes the Kingfisher case, banks were over-eager to give loans to the group, though it was clear that the group was over-stretched. What was the consortium of banks doing when one or the other was funding Kingfisher when it had been clear that they were a basket case? Why were red flags not raised to stop further sanction of bank loans? And now why is Arundhati Bhattacharya seeking a political solution?

The suggestion of hers is not the end of this process but the beginning of a long line of banks queuing up for the government or their political masters to bail them out once the Kingfisher case is accepted to be dealt with in this manner. Is this not a situation where our senior bankers are passing the buck to their higher-ups? Are they not in this manner washing  their hands off and seeking absolution from the complete discharge of their responsibilities? Do they then need to be preserved in their cushy chairs? If you look at the banking system on an impartial basis then you see them sanctioning loans to industry where they are entertained in cash and kind while when it comes to the deprived segments of our society, the loan sanctions dry up since this class is unable to meet the demands of the bankers. The rule book is thrown at such needy people to justify the banks inability to offer a line of credit.

It has been reported that in the belt in Maharasthra which has seen a spate of farmer suicides, the performance of our PSB's - Public Sector Banks has been far below target and the farmers are being made to run from pillar to post to get their loans sanctioned. The bankers seem to refuse to realise that sanctioning some of the loans could have saved a few lives. The similar situation persisted when the UPA government sometime back had written off some Rs. 60,000 crores worth of farmers loans which bankers at the ground level refused to write off citing procedural issues though the political decision was existing.

This is the status of our banking system which knows to ask for salary hikes citing pressures of work and rising prices but ensures that work is avoided by quoting one or the other excuse while sanctioning credit and smoothening the way for funding their industry cronies as long as their interests are taken care of. Raghuram Rajan, RBI Governor had started the process of putting the banking system under some rigour but now with his imminet departure we will have to get someone  like Hercules from the pages of history, since his experience of cleaning the Aegean stables will be very useful here.

India’s Overtures To USA: A Foreign Policy Disaster In The Making

India for long has played an important role in international affairs. For quite some time in the mid-20th century India was considered a respected leader of the Third World - an agglomeration of the countries of the developing world struggling with their problems of development and poverty and seeking a voice and wishing to be heard in international forums somewhere in between the voices of the West and the Comecon countries. The Comecon included Russia and the grouping of Communist countries commonly referred as the economies behind the Iron Curtain, since pulled down. Then China attacked India in 1962 and we had the wars in somewhat close succession with Pakistan in 1965 and 1971 which necessitated arming ourselves. With the USA showing a definite tilt towards Pakistan because of their own compulsions of the Cold War and desiring to have a front with Russia through Afghanistan, India had no option but to turn towards Russia. An Indo-Soviet treaty was signed to seal this alliance which apart from the strategic military advantage was convenient to India since trade between the countries was in Indian Rupees. This was advantageous for India which was then facing severe foreign exchange problems. At that time one could say that India was pushed into Russia's arms by the USA which had tried to threaten India militarily during the war that resulted in the formation of Bangladesh because Indira Gandhi had supported Mujibur Rehman in his fight for freedom.

Strange are our present times since with close to four and a half decades having passed, India and the USA are mutually calling themselves 'natural allies', what with one being the largest democracy in the world while the other being the most powerful democracy in the world. In the intervening four decades or more the world has changed remarkably with Russia no longer a super-power and with that the Cold War having become of lesser relevance except with the USA and Russia infrequently counting each others nuclear stockpiles. China has stepped into the void vacated by Russia and shares a hot and cold relationship with the USA, hot on trade and cold when it seems that China is adamant of being perceived as the dominant power in Asia particularly with the countries in South East Asia.

As far as India is concerned after Pakistan being Enemy No. 1, China is Enemy No. 2 considering that we had a short war on our north-eastern borders with them in 1962 and that we have border demarcation issues in our shared boundaries. Thus it makes eminent sense for India to woo the USA away from Pakistan and cozy up to them to keep the China bully at bay. That has been the mainstay of our foreign policy for the last decade or more. That is precisely also the reason why despite the many times that India was shortchanged by the USA in dealing with Pakistani on terror issues, by putting sensitive components and equipment on the Export Control list in the 70’s to the 90’s which put back India’s nuclear and space programs back by at least three decades and snubbing India's claim for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. Other than that along the way after the 9/11 attacks and the setting up of Homeland Security Dept. in the USA, there have been incidents, one can say of minor nature, wherein our political leaders and eminent persons involved in the arts and entertainment field have had the embarrassment of being detained needlessly and body-searched at multiple US airports including even the late President A P J Abdul Kalam.  In spite of all this we have gone through the process of signing the Indo-US Nuclear Deal.

The Indo-US Nuclear Deal was signed when the Republican George Bush II was the President of USA and which deal has not moved much though the Democrat Barrack Obama, the new incumbent in the White House has paid token lip-service to the treaty but did not do anything much to get it off the ground. In the rest of the world with the Cold War coming to an end, the celebrated movements the Third World like NAM – Non-Aligned Movement, have lost their relevance and have died a slow death. The countries of this grouping depending on their size and economic relevance are currying favour with the only remaining Super-Power, the USA and to a lesser extent with China. India’s position now in world affairs is like an also-ran though with increasing economic resources India is looked at as another funding source in Africa when countries are rebuffed by the Western developed countries or China.

In this context the recent overtures by PM Narendra Modi towards the USA are to be seen with concern. The reason for this is that the USA sees the world through its convenience and its own best interests. As indicated earlier the Nixon – Kissinger regime was almost one could say as anti-India and Pakistan in their eyes with all the evidence in front of them of involvement in cross-border attacks and incitement in Kashmir could do no wrong.  That was when the Export Control regime was at its strictest blocking supplies of almost every single order of critical items for India’s defence research establishments. Even the Indo-US Nuclear Deal was signed because it serves the USA’s business interests of getting orders for the GE nuclear reactors and also getting massive business for weapons that are needed by India’s armed forces modernization programs.

Even the recent support by the USA for India to join the NSG is to be seen in the context that it smoothens the way for the supply of GE reactors for India’s ambitious nuclear energy program. Thus in all this context why Narendra Modi should jump off the deep-end in embracing the USA is something that cannot be understood. We are moving into a subordinate relationship with the USA and will find ourselves being cornered to act in what will not be in India’s best interests. This applies to doing the USA’s bidding in the Indian Ocean or the South China Sea. Also the timing of ramping up the relationship by PM Narendra Modi is suspect.  The USA being in the Presidential Election Year it is not a time very judicious to move too close since one is not sure as to who will be the next incumbent in the White House. Among the two main contenders are the Democrat Hilary Clinton and the Republican Donald Trump. If Clinton wins then the Democrat will be operating with her hands tied since both the Senate and the House of Representatives are controlled by the Republicans. If the Republican Donald Trump wins then not only India but the world will have its relations with the USA in turmoil. Thus therefore it would been wise to be a bit wary of the relationship with the USA at this point in time and not go into overdrive as Narendra Modi has done with four visits to the USA in the two years that he has been in power. In foreign policy Narendra Modi needs to learn that cautious and sure steps are better than seek overarching and pathbreaking milestones otherwise we will have fiascos like the chai with Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan and lately the snubbing of India’s membership to the NSG by China.

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