VOX POPULI

by

S Kamat

as

Aam Admi

Issue: 184               Date:  16.01.2017

skamatblog.blogspot.com or aamadmivoices.blogspot.com

 

Contents:

1. Urjit Patel Running Away from Media @ The Vibrant Gujarat Summit
2. Modi On The KVIC Promotional Items For 2017
3. Army Chief Should Concentrate On Core Business
4. Modi As A 'Visionary Leader'!

  

Urjit Patel Running Away from Media @ The Vibrant Gujarat Summit

Urjit Patel, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) running away from the media at the Vibrant Gujarat summit recently is representative of the inability that the Governor has in facing up to situations. This started with the demonetisation exercise commenced from 8th Nov 2016 when Patel & the RBI was railroaded into accepting the decision. Thereafter it appeared to observers that the RBI was being run by the Finance Ministry with one or the other Secretary announcing decisions that were the domain of the RBI. The status of this venerable autonomous institution was then clearly eroded. Even internally within the RBI the same feeling was existent as is brought out by the unions of both staff and officers of the organisation in their representation to government recently. No amount of verbal assurances will be enough for the government to claim that they respect the autonomy of the RBI since in emergency situations they will repeat the same action. Under the present BJP government the independence of autonomous institutions like RBI is constantly under threat. The same situation exists with the government's approach with the Supreme Court with the venerable court being hobbled by not appointing judges on its recommendations  for one reason or another. This is being done in the background of the the huge number of cases piling up in courts across the country which surely the government in association with the judiciary has to tackle and bring it down to reasonable proportions. 

Modi On The KVIC Promotional Items For 2017

The furore on Narendra Modi replacing Mahatma Gandhi on the KVIC diary and calendar for 2017 needs to be understood in the background of the officials in government seeking to please the Prime Minister in the manner of acolytes. For various reasons the head of KVIC may have taken the decision without any guidelines from the government and for very mundane reasons like seeking an extension to his term or wanting to be noticed so that he could be considered for any other plum assignment that he desires. This is being stated since you have to give the benefit of the doubt to the government and/or the Prime Minister. In continuation of the argument one also needs to state that Mahatma Gandhi does not have the monopoly on the promotion of khadi. As one expert said that the khadi favoured by the Mahatma and what is in vogue today is completely different. At the same time the Haryana minister who said that the sales of khadi did not increase by using the Mahatma's image to promote it is measuring the great man's contribution in a very miniscule way and weighing it on the scale of commercial success, which is representative of the mediocre minds of our leaders today. 

Army Chief Should Concentrate On Core Business

The Army Chief Rawat needs to stop the bluff and bluster approach in talking tough but concentrate on brass tacks to do his basic job of protecting his men and country. When the Army is unable to protect their own camps in Kashmir for reasons of administrative lacunae and lax operational procedure as was evident since the attacks on Pathankot, how will they protect the country? Rawat also needs to de-emphasise  the 'surgical strike' narrative since it has become more of a political weapon in recent times. As Rawat would obviously know that any such sensitive operations are not to be given needless publicity and the maxim to be applied is - Talk Less, Work More. That is the way the effectiveness of the Army operations would improve. Defence Minister Parrikar need also mull on these issues and cut out the frivolous talk and concentrate on matters to make the Indian armed forces the best fighting-fit force in the world as he himself had said in the recent past.

Modi As A 'Visionary Leader'!

People are always willing to sacrifice for their country as long as there is a just and noble cause. But a leader should know  when to ask for this sacrifice since in that decision lies the making of a humane and sensitive leader. A leader loses credibility if he asks for this sacrifice for mistakes committed by him and for irrelevant issues. At the same time if a leader admits his mistakes either committed directly by him or by his government in the event this leader holds the reins of office and apologises for these mistakes then the stature of the leader is greatly enhanced in the eyes of his people. It is not important that the leader compensates the people affected by the mistakes but if that is done then the belief of the people in the leader is cemented further. It is important for a leader to empathise with the people and just not mouth pithy words and shed crocodile tears. He should also not take people for granted. We will touch upon these premises in the context of PM Narendra Modi unleashing the demon of demonetisation on the country on 8th Nov 2016. 

The initial objectives of demonetisation were to fight black money, corruption, counterfeiting, terror and drug funding. Lately with the first two objectives of black money and corruption not being achieved, the subsidiary aims of counterfeiting, terror and drug funding are being touted as being hit badly if not eliminated. Further the PM's demonetisation narrative is yet again emphasising that it empowers the poor. How it does that, is not clear? With the bungling of the demonetisation exercise it is the poor and the lesser privileged who have got the most affected. Modi had said in the initial days after 8th Nov 2016 that the rich are spending sleepless nights and the poor are sleeping the sleep of the comfortable. But with the cash shortage it turned out exactly the opposite with the poor spending sleepless nights more so because of their empty stomachs. The jargon of benefiting the poor is just like election promises say it for now, the dummies are not going to come back and question you later. Even, if they do, we will handle it with another story. This approach was also seen in Modi's speech on New Year's Eve where announcements were made for benefits which are not significant and for schemes which are not operative and with confusing guidelines for implementation. The attempt is once again to delude the poor and benefit the middle class and the rich  just like about a decade ago when the BJP riding on the plank of the India Shining campaign lost massively in the succeeding general elections. Cash shortage like a virus has spread everywhere from the leather goods fabrication sweatshops in Dharavi to the bangle makers of Firozepur to the farmers mandis that sell produce  across the country to the small industries that depend on cash to get their production materials to the micro finance agencies that fund household industries etc. Daily wage workers were hit and food and commodity markets slack with the trading community reporting sales had fallen by more  than 50% in Nov 2016. Apart from the realty sector the organised industry sector has been hit with FMCG and the auto industry taking the major brunt. When newspaper headlines including that in the financial papers are screaming about slowdowns, job losses where Modi and his team are seeing the silver lining in the dark clouds of demonetisation is something that they need to explain clearly. 

Thus you will see that Modi has been talking in multiple voices at multiple times. Then there is the emphasis on a cashless or less-cash economy which is nothing but an attempt to deflect the attention from the failure of the demonetisation exercise. The problem is that no one knows what  Modi  is seeing in the demonetisation exercise irrespective of what he has been saying.  And the people within the BJP are blinkered and they can it seems see only Modi. Thus we are in a crisis created by Modi on a program which has many confusing objectives, which any administrative or management person will tell you is a recipe for disaster. At the same time those pointing out the difficulties of the people because of the cash shortage are being branded as speaking for the black money hoarders and also lacking in patriotism. For pointing out that someone is making a hash of an economic measure being called anti-national is a first by any standards. In fact the words sacred and patriotism are being bandied about liberally by the BJP which is devaluing their importance in our way of life. As commented above on patriotism, to call the the demonetisation exercise a ‘sacred’ task is insulting religion and in turn our gods. These are not indicators of a cultured and civilized society.

Ever since Modi has come to power it has been seen that his government has been bent upon dividing society, creating an atmosphere of mistrust that one has to keep looking over one’s shoulder to see if anyone is keeping an eye on you.  This happens now whether you have something to hide or not  like the other day a friend of mine, 75 year old to boot, got an IT notice though he has not been liable for tax for more than a decade and lives off his savings in FD’s. Just the nuisance for this senior citizen to go to the IT office, queue up before the officer and explain himself is clearly completely avoidable harassment. While the big fish get away the IT picks on the weak and defenceless to exercise and show off their power. Even when Modi asks people publicly to report on those having black money on an email id of the IT department, is it not instigating one fellow man against another? Not that Indians need an additional invitation for such activities. But with all this, unnecessary tension is being fostered in the country. 

On the issue of demonetisation as it is coming out now it was Narendra Modi's decision, which he has admitted even earlier, the RBI was not consulted and that institution used to just ratify the decision. Even the Niti Aayog was not consulted  though Arvind Panagariya, its Vice Chairman,  believes that it advises the government on major policy matters. Why was it isolated? On such a major decision when you were pulling out 87% of currency out of circulation, is it not necessary for a leader to consult the experts on monetary and economic matters and arrive at a considered decision? By not doing this Modi is laying himself open to the charge of being insensitive. In this demonetisation exercise he has followed what is called the ‘scorched earth’ policy in military parlance wherein you focus on victory irrespective of the grievous impact on those impacted or involved. This happens in instances in comments n society where lack of education of a person makes him unable to assess consequences. In misplaced bravado the person moves ahead in the belief – Dekha Jayega. Jo Bhi Hoga Dekh Lenge! This is disastrous as we have seen in the implementation of the demonetisation exercise in the country. If the demonetisation was so important for Modi to do then by if by withdrawing 87% of the currency it has created so much problems then he could as well have pulled out the remaining 13% and it would not have added much more problems than those created in the existing situation. But it would surely have satisfied Modi's larger than life ego.  He could then have introduced a new currency for India to break away from the past and maybe called it Modi or Modiah or Modyah. That way he would have left a permanent stamp of his contribution to the history of India. We need a balance in judgment and considered decision making without which Modi may lead us to a precipitate war with either Pakistan or China and then ask us whether we are not prepared to sacrifice and suffer for our country. 

Thus you have a country that was touted to be a Super Power in the future and an economy regarded as the fastest growing in the world in the present times irrespective of the fact that the world over recession-like tendencies are prevailing, has been through the hands of its own Prime Minister,  just as it was picking itself up to get on to the path of growth and his adamant and stubborn attitude not to accept that he has made a mistake in his implementation of the demonetisation exercise launched on Nov 8th reduced it to a pathetic state of economic uncertainty. The RBI & the World Bank have aleady scaled down the projections for India's GDP growth to around 7%. This does not factor in the impact of demonetisation which is sure to pull it down further to 6.5% or so.

Thus you will see there is a serious doubt on Narendra Modi's leadership abilities, his balanced judgment and his willingness to stand up and accept responsibility for his own actions. He also needs to realise that Analysis is a basic virtue that all leaders must have.This crisis generated from the demonetisation exercise is all the more surprising coming from a man who had promised minimum government and maximum governance in 2014 when he came to power while now it is completely the opposite. 

There are benefits in Modi's proposals like demonetisation to fight black money but it has to be implemented right. Like increasing people that are in the IT net to boost revenues which can then be used for development and to lessen IT rates for those who pay tax. Like a less-cash or cashless economy will have a significant impact on the black economy. That with the black economy fading out the white economy would grow and thus boost GDP. But these are goals that are progressive and need to be taken up with the the singleminded focus to derive success and not all together as we have seen since Nov 8th 2016. 

*************************************

VOX POPULI

by

S Kamat

as

Aam Admi

Issue: 183                   Date:  09.01.2017

skamatblog.blogspot.com or aamadmivoices.blogspot.com

 

Contents:

1.      Modi's Government Failing The Trust Test

2.      The 'Mass Molestation' At Bengaluru

3.      Thakur Refused To Read The Writing On The Wall

Modi's Government Failing The Trust Test

The mess regarding the demonetisation measure continues with the latest being the RBI refusing to accept the demonetised notes after 30th Dec 2016 from the general public. In defence of this position Arun Jaitley, Finance Minister has said that RBI is an autonomous institution and they are within their rights to take any decision while clarifying that the PM in his speech announcing the demonetisation had said that  RBI at their denominated offices will accept notes until 31st March 2017 for which terms and conditions would be advised. One wonders when the Finance Ministry was running the RBI from 8th Nov  to 5th Dec 2016 where its autonomy was hidden? In all this PM Narendra Modi is losing credibility is what his colleagues and the institutions involved do not realise. It is not only in this but in many of the things that Modi has announced since 8th Nov 2016 that there is confusion like the PMGAY - Prime Minister Grameen Awas Yojana is a dud scheme and a State like Maharashtra has not even sanctioned even one application under it and also the Rs 6,000 grant to pregnant women, no one knows how to implement it. This is just like the earlier advice at the height of the cash shortage that you could draw Rs. 2.5 Lakhs for a wedding in the family where after the initial confusion a set of rules were framed by the RBI which were so strict that many preferred not to avail of the scheme and some even deferred the marriage of their children. 

The reason why the RBI is not accepting any more of the demonetised notes except from NRI's and those who had been abroad in the period since 8th Nov is because it and in consequence the government would lose face what with at last count 97% of the demonetised notes having come back into the banking system. And if they continue to accept the old notes they would get more than 100% of the demonetised notes! If this were to happen then the premise that demonetisation was done to eliminate black money would be seriously jeopardised. Not only there would be no question of the 'special' dividend that RBI would pay the government on which basis the poverty alleviation measures were to come. Added to that it would expose the shabby state of accounting of the notes in the banking system under the RBI's stewardship for which now a detailed assessment is being done to show that at least some of the demonetised notes did not come back. 

While all this has been happening the fatuous Arun Jaitley, Finance Minister has been crowing about the boost in collections of taxes, both direct and indirect, in the current year which is but natural since if you analyse the collections you will find that most of it came after 8th Nov 2016 and in the majority it was direct taxes. This happened because the demonetised notes were used to pay up advance tax in excess rather than go through the embarrassment of going through the exchange process or depositing it through the banking channels. That is also the same reason why public utilities have recovered old dues and are current with their tax receipts and why loan repayments to banks peaked after 8th Nov 2016. Why does Jaitley not speak of credit offtake from banks being the lowest in decades in the current year and that the PMI for both manufacturing and services sector has been shrinking month by month and more so after 8th Nov 2016. Jaitley does not seem to be perturbed about serious issues affecting the Indian economy where sector after sector has been reporting slowdowns but is celebrating in his new role of tax collector par excellence.

This is been the state of affairs of the bold demonetisation measure of PM Narendra Modi to eliminate black money, corruption et al which has fallen flat with a resounding splash across India while at the same time putting the billion and more of its citizens to misery which is continuing to this day.

Postscript: Modi on his recent visit to Patna is supposedly to have greeted Nitish Kumar with - Aapne to Daru-bandi kar ke sirf peenewalon me tabahi macha di, maine to Note-bandi kar ke sare desh me tabahi macha ke rakkhi hai. (If you have created a nuisance for drinkers by banning alcohol, I have created a nuisance for the entire nation with demonetisation.)

The 'Mass Molestation' At Bengaluru

There has been two much hype in the media with regard to the supposedly 'mass molestation' incident that happened on New Year's Eve at Bengaluru and also related to the Kammanahalli incident where the lone woman was attacked. In both cases the basic question is what are normal times that women should be out in the streets. This was more so in the Kammanahalli incident since what was the woman doing alone on the streets at 2.30am, even if it was New Year's Eve. Those women who are concerned with their own safety would have been escorted by someone or the other to venture out at that hour. The persons who attacked her were obviously lumpen elements who were seeking some satisfaction of their sexual  urges and the woman was unfortunately the hapless victim. She was lucky to get away with her life since anything could have happened at that time. As for the 'mass molestation' on Brigade Road and MG Road, here again people and particularly women should know where and what times they are safe. There was a condoning clause here that the place was a public place and the occasion was New Year's Eve but even those accompanying the women be it friends or family should have taken care and extra precautions. The more the crowd and with drunken people in them are no place for women to be around at any time of the day or night. The police are also helpless at times when they are outnumbered in a crowd, so blaming them is like using them as a punching bag for your own discretions. The police would do as much they can to protect people but there is a limit to their ability defined by the particular situation. When such incidents happen, women groups become hyper but essentially every citizen of India should remember that his or her safety is first the individual's job and then the police comes in. It is not that you deliberately invite danger and then complain of police inaction is not being a responsible citizen. In India the times are changing and because of the divide between the rich and the poor, no jobs for the youth and therefore no money in their hands, there is a jealousy and grouse that they develop when they see people being of their same age group celebrating freely and possessing things that they themselves aspire to own. This grudge is accentuated at festival times or on days like New Year's Eve and a revenge motive develops which gives rise to incidents as above. Therefore every right-minded citizen is better advised that he or she should take care of themselves and their family first and take necessary precautions rather than depend on the public authorities. Does not sound too good but that is what this country has progressed to. 

The Commissioner of Police, Bengaluru while talking to the media a couple of days back said that 6000 CCTV cameras would be installed around the city to prevent such incidents. Unfortunately this is typical of authorities who gain wisdom after the incident and is typical of closing the stable door after the horses have bolted. He also does not understand that the cameras cannot prevent anything from happening that is being carried out with deliberate intent and will only serve in the trial of the assailants, in the event that they are caught, as evidence. What the police even on the New Year’s Eve incident should have done is anticipated the incident as the crowd was building up and intervened to control the crowd by releasing them in batches or spread them out to the extent possible given the road topography as is done in Kolkata while managing the huge Durga Puja rush. On the contrary our police wait for the incident to develop before they intervene. A training course in better crowd control is recommended for the police not only in Bengaluru but across the country.

Thakur Refused To Read The Writing On The Wall

The removal of Anurag Thakur at the BCCI was on the cards a long time back when he fell foul with the Lodha Committee report and thereafter with the Supreme Court. One needs to have a certain amount of maturity not to play games with the highest court of the land which is what Thakur was doing. He was directly instigating the State Cricket Associations to come out against the Lodha Committee report which was not the proper thing to do. As the apex cricket organisation in the country BCCI was expected to fight its own wars and not hide behind the State bodies. The problem was that BCCI had become arrogant suffering from the syndrome that money can buy you anything and in that attitude has been Anurag Thakur's downfall. 

Another thing that Thakur failed to handle properly was the Pakistan issue. That country is going to drag India to international courts for refusing to play cricket against it and sue India for some US$200 - 300 million for that reason. All cricket playing countries around the world know the dangerous security situation in Pakistan for which reason all matches of that country are being played in the Gulf. Now obviously this is not a normal situation and BCCI should have insisted that Pakistan play its international cricket in its own country. Going further the matches that Pakistan plays in the Gulf should have been denied official status. This would have taken the wind out of Pakistan's sails and they would have concentrated to bring back normalcy at home. Instead of that the offender country -Pakistan is dictating rules to India and threatening it. A rather unfortunate and incongruous situation, indeed!

*******************************************

VOX POPULI

by

S Kamat

as

Aam Admi

Issue: 182            Date:  02.01.2017

skamatblog.blogspot.com or aamadmivoices.blogspot.com

 

Contents:

1.   1.    Modi & His Demonetisation Ways: A Possible Alternate Method

2.   2. Modi Should Change Tack Aim At Politicians and Government Employees

3.     3.  Modi Should Come Clean On Gujarat Corruption Charge

Modi & His Demonetisation Ways: A Possible Alternate Method

In the context of the demonetisation exercise launched by Narendra Modi from Nov 8th 2016, he has been asking the people if they accept demonetisation. There are no two things about it because to fight black money and corruption demonetisation is an effective measure and the people will accept the premise. In fact Modi's addresses to the public are nothing short of rhetorical questions which from the pulpit that he is speaking from, he obviously cannot get any answers and his speeches tend to be of the rabble rousing kind. The comment that you can make in this context is that Modi cannot be in electioneering mode when he has to handle matters of governance. Modi also questions the people on matters where they have little or not so complete understanding and then claims that the public are with him be it on demonetization or fighting black money. Even while touching upon the number of circulars put out by RBI on the demonetisation issue, he talks of sensitive government while the other side of the coin is a government which does not know what it is doing.

In reality, the question that Modi should have asked the people is whether the demonetisation measure

was implemented properly and whether the people are happy about it? Now that is an embarrassing question, is it not Mr Modi? There are a further number of simple questions which the people have on which Mr Modi should give the answers, like:

1. On Nov 8th 2016, how many new Rs. 500 notes were available with the RBI for distribution?

2. How much currency did the BJP party deposit in banks 30 days prior to Nov 8th 2016? Give a day-wise schedule of deposits.

3. Why have the BJP MP's & MLA's not submitted their bank statements for the period from Nov 8th 2016 till date to Amit Shah? 

4. Who is the mole in Modi’s inner circle working for the black money syndicate who has sabotaged his demonetisation exercise? Reasons for the need of this clarification is that this person must have suggested the multiple id's for exchanging the demonetised notes and pushed for the demonetisation with only the new notes of Rs. 2000 and practically no Rs. 500 notes guaranteeing confusion and public uproar that has lasted close to two months now with cash drawals from banks being limited for which there does not seem any end in sight in the near future. By this measure the demonetization was kept that much ajar so that they could escape with little damage. This matter could be deliberate at the party level by the BJP whose upper echelons had full awareness of and for which the party would have been compensated since the State elections were imminent. Or the mole would have feathered his nest so that a thousand generations of his would not have to worry for their future.

 Modi has been saying that he is not afraid to tackle tough issues. That's fine but Modi should he not set an example of practising what he preaches. Is he personally willing to face the consequences of his decisions? We are sure that Modi had some of the demonetised notes. Did he go and stand in line to exchange the notes like any other common citizen? To get the feel of the situation did he go and stand in front of an ATM to find that the cash had run out when he had been in the line for about two hours. That would have been the real way to show that Modi knows what the common man has been going through during this demonetisation exercise. It is easy to sit in air conditioned offices and claim that one knows what the man on the street feels or faces but it is yet another thing to be out there on the street with the common man. The problem is that we want to emulate the Western way of life and their leaders but still want to retain the Indian way of using the trappings of office to avoid the compliance to procedures that are required to be done by common people. Keep Modi aside, no BJP MP or MLA was seen in any queue across the country exchanging money or drawing cash from ATM’s though they made many newspaper headlines with many BJP leaders caught with large stashes of demonetized notes.

The answers to the above questions are from what is apparent from newspaper reports and the RTI’s filed with RBI is as follows:

 1.      On Nov 8^th when the demonetisation of the old Rs. 500 & Rs. 1000 notes was announced, apart from the sample notes that Shaktikanta Das waved during the press conference immediately after Modi’s announcement, there were no new Rs. 500 with the RBI. That is the reason why the new RBI Governor, Urjit Patel’s signature is on these notes and not Raghuram Rajan’s, the previous RBI Governor. If as Modi’s claim this exercise was in the planning for 10 months then it is obvious that Raghuram Rajan’s signature would be on these new notes and there would also have been adequate quantity of these notes available for distribution. The printing of the new Rs. 500 notes in bulk started only after Nov 8^th.

2.     2.   Apart from the Rs. 8 crores that the Bengal BJP deposited in banks in Kolkata even after the scheduled closing time on Nov 8^th, there would have been deposits by the BJP party and their legislators who would have got prior information about the demonetization, in banks across the country. The country wants to know these figures. Additionally post – Nov 8^th the BJP MP’s and ministers were given the facility of exchanging their old demonetised notes with new currency. In this exercise it is understood that Arun Jaitley, the Finance Minister topped the list with Rs. 68 Lakhs. Are these deposits being looked at with the same magnifying glass by the IT authorities wherein all deposits in excess of Rs. 2.5 Lakhs will be matched with their IT returns and known sources of income and if there is a mismatch, penalties would be levied as declared?

3.    3.   There has been no news of any MP or MLA submitting his bank statements for the period from Nov 8^th onwards to Amit Shah. To ensure compliance, should Modi not take the lead and submit his bank statements for this period so that other BJP legislators can follow suit.

4.    4.  There is obviously a mole in Modi’s inner circle who leaked the news of the demonetisation to the black money syndicate who must be the same person who allowed for multiple ids to be used for exchange of demonetized notes at banks and post offices. If only people who had accounts at the respective banks and post offices been allowed to exchange notes only there then you could have easily segregated those with no bank accounts.  For such people a separate counter could have been formed thus allowing the possibility that some of these people would be those exchanging money for the black money syndicate. Then it would have allowed the authorities to go after those among this bunch whom they consider suspicious and thus achieve some success in getting closer to the black money syndicate. For a pithy mistake by the authorities the IT Dept. are now suspecting a large number of people who in the majority may be innocent being questioned for their hard earned money and also increasing the workload of the authorities needlessly. 

In summarising this entire demonetization exercise, one does not understand - Where was the reason to panic? Considering that over the last 2 years or more the money supply had been growing far in excess of the country’s GDP which indicated that the currency, mostly the large denomination notes were being used for other purposes either black money activities or for terrorist funding etc. etc. Note that the spurt in currency and its mismatch with GDP figures was mostly in the Modi era after 2014. Then in April – May 2015 the Gujarat daily had talked of demonetization of large denomination notes, then in July – August 2016 – there was talk of a Rs. 2000 note being launched and then in September 2016 – there was talk of a new Rs. 500 series. Putting all this together Modi hit panic stations end Oct and then spilt the beans on Nov 8, 2016. This was no way to go for a mature and rational individual used to the ways of large scale policy initiatives. What needed to be done was that to defer the demonetization to lull the black money syndicate into comfort, but introduce the Rs. 2000 note and then the new Rs. 500 note when it became available in sufficient volume. Then we would have three denominations of Rs. 2000, Rs. 1000 and the Rs. 500 but actually 4 types of notes since the Rs. 500 would be of two types. This would have set the black money syndicate at ease confirming their information that new notes were coming but the expected demonetization was not happening. Then about a year down the road or even later, since there was no emergency to start the fight against black money, pull out the Rs. 2000 and the old Rs. 1000 and Rs. 500 notes while launching a new Rs. 1000 note. This would have left the public with the denominations of Rs. 1000 and Rs. 500 as earlier. This process would have also given more than enough time to print the new series of Rs. 1000 which would not have set off alarm bells ringing since with new notes of Rs. 2000 and Rs. 500, a new note of Rs. 1000 was logical. When the new Rs. 2000 would be demonetized then it would have wiped out almost 90% of the black money held in cash since by that time the Rs. 2000 would have graduated to the status of preferred note for black money stashes and the pulling out of the old Rs. 500 would be of no consequence. This is what is called – riding the wave, changing things according to necessity but keeping the larger perspective in mind.  Unfortunately these are aspects which Modi has not learnt since his approach is that if you see an ant go after it with a hammer!

Modi Should Change Tack Aim At Politicians and Government Employees

Modi's demonetisation has not made even a minor dent in reducing black money and corruption. The whole exercise has been to exhibit misplaced bravado and hide adverse facts and promote those that seek to extol demonetisation. To give you an example NHAI has estimated that it will have to pay Rs. 922 crores to private toll booth operators across the country to compensate them for exempting payment of tolls by highway users in the period from the afternoon of 9th Nov to midnight of 2nd Dec. Similarly the operators who fill ATM's with cash are likely to send a bill in excess of Rs. 400 crores  to the government for the loss in their operations because firstly, they are not being given enough cash to fill ATM's which activity has dropped from an average per ATM of Rs. 7 lakhs/day to Rs. 1.5 lakhs/day and secondly, most of these operators keep the ATM's functioning on a fee per transaction which has drastically dropped since the number of hours of ATM working has been drastically reduced and non-functional ATM's far exceed the ones that are working. Thus if you take just the Rs. 922 crores the NHAI has to shell out, it is far in excess of the aggregate total of all seizures made since Nov 8th of cash, both demonetised and new, gold, jewellery and what-have-you. The seizures made through raids etc. are puny and are nowhere near the estimated size of actual black money in the country. The continuous news in the media about seizures is only a publicity stunt to show that the demonetisation has actually worked. 

Demonetisation was an excellent tool to get at the cash component of black money which Modi & his team muffed up as we have seen in the last 50 days. But the amount of black money kept in cash is hardly 10-15% of the total. Thus Modi has to go after the other ways that black money is kept. Black money in benami properties be it land or otherwise is another method which Modi says he is going to tackle next. And one is sure that his further target should be in bringing back the black money abroad. Modi was to bring back the black money from abroad particularly Swiss banks within 100 days of assuming office but now with more than 800 days having passed there is nothing in sight. To cover up on his lapse or inability to bring black money from abroad Modi embarked on his short-sighted binge of demonetisation which has brought day to day lives in homes and businesses, in fact every sphere of economic activity across the country to a near halt. 

To fight black money apart from benami properties Modi has to show the will to tackle election funding by political parties. This is a major area where black money is deployed. In fact all political parties needs to be brought under the ambit of the CAG and their accounts compulsorily audited every year, failing which the Election Commission should de-register them.

As for the fight against corruption Modi needs to have the courage to attack two principal groups - politicians and government employees. Between these two groups more than half the corruption in India is accounted for. For politicians based on their asset filing with the Election Commission,  IT assessments should be done to see whether their income matches their assets growth which irrespective of party affiliation has been growing astronomically each time they file a new asset form with the EC. When there is this very visible class of people who have been accumulating ill-gotten wealth staring Modi in the face one wonders why he is going after looking under each carpet to unearth black money hoarders? The question is will Modi have the guts to fight his own breed?

As for government employees where corruption is a way of life for the majority and nothing really moves without the lubricant of money, Modi should show the will to target them. Modi started with a lion's roar about making government employees work upon taking over in 2014 but over the 2 years since in 2016, we  have found his approach to this class has been that of a mewing cat. What needs to be done is that Modi should withdraw the 7th Pay Commission already in place and implement a 'pay for work' salary system based on an incentive scheme. Set the base salaries of government employees at the levels prior to the 7th Pay Commission and let them earn the raises of the new scales as an incentive for better productivity. The Niti Aayog can work out the productivity norms for all classes of government employees which will be at least some 'productive' work that they would have done. The shock of demonetisation where some of their hoards would have been evaporated and the productivity based salary system should encourage the government employees to put their noses down into their work or in contrarian terms at the least get involved in finding ways to beat the new system. 

Unless we do the above there is no future for this country and we will be turning the pages of the book of the saga of black money and corruption over and over again.

Modi Should Come Clean On Gujarat Corruption Charge

We are in a curious situation in India where scams are counted by size and it appears one party wants to outbeat the other by the number of scams and the value associated with them. Otherwise why should the BJP defend Narendra Modi against Rahul Gandhi's charge of having taken money from the Sahara group and the Birlas when he was the Gujarat Chief Minister by saying that the Congress has been involved in more scams. The scenario here is like when you are at the circus watching two competing trapeze artists trying to outbeat each other by going higher and higher, while you watch from your seat mouth agape in amazement. Is the BJP's  lame defence an indirect admission of Modi's guilt in this corruption case? Also should Modi as Prime Minister not be interested in clearing his name of these charges? Therefore it is the correct time for him to come clean on this matter.

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