VOX POPULI
by
S Kamat
as
Aam Admi
Issue: 261 Date: 17.12.2018
Contents:
1. Rafael Is Still Looping The Loop
2. The Recent Assembly Elections Results & The Portends Of The Future To Come
3. Another Wicket Falls On Mint Street
Rafael Is Still Looping The Loop
The Rafael imbroglio has been led into a further loop by the Supreme Court in citing in their judgment the references of the CAG & the PAC in a different manner than what was intended by the Advocate General - AG on behalf of the government. Was this a lack of 'due diligence' on the part of the judges involved? Should they not have looked at the phraseology properly? What was purported to be the description of procedure has now been converted in the judgment to a certification of the Rafael deal indirectly by claiming that the CAG, PAC and even Parliament was on board. What we expect is that the Supreme Court being the last resort for any matter in the country, there is a belief that their judgments are sacred, inviolate and incontestable. This belief has now been shaken. One cannot also give a clean chit to the incumbent government who may have deliberately introduced this 'red herring' in their plea, hoping against hope that a misunderstanding would take place, which has now happened. The government is now playing the role of the innocent by pointing out the error and claiming that the wording in their draft was different. How much more devious can you get? Postscript: in this context one is reminded of Perry Mason, the lawyer made famous by Earl Stanley Gardner, who in jury trials practised this technique by drawing out an argument which he was sure that the judge would strike out from the record but even then in the minds of the jury the point would have been made. So also the legitimacy of the Rafael deal would have sunk into the minds of all Indians.
The Recent Assembly Elections Results & The Portends Of The Future To Come
The results of the Assembly polls for the 5 States have come in, widely touted as the semi-finals before the Lok Sabha polls in 2019, with the Congress winning 2 and losing 1, the TRS retaining Telangana and MP turning out to be a close tie. But the important thing is that in part of the Hindi heartland of India the BJP has essentially lost. This is remarkable today in the least and reflects the disenchantment of the people with the BJP through the Modi government's failure to address governance issues responsibly. One of the BJP leaders while speaking when the Assembly elections counting process was on attributed the losses to the anti-incumbency factor. This is trivialising the issue since then one can say it portends what is likely to happen in the Lok Sabha polls in 2019. One wonders if Narendra Modi and Amit Shah will be satisfied with that explanation. On the other hand Rahul Gandhi has said that the results of these Assembly elections should show Modi that he has to change. Now, why should Rahul Gandhi tell him that since if Modi remains the way he is, it will be advantageous for the Congress and they can score big in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The Gandhi scion should know that it does not pay to give tips to your opponents. Similarly, with these wins Rahul Gandhi and the Congress should not feel emboldened to go alone in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls and avoid the Mahagathbandhan strategy. That would be disastrous and playing straight into Narendra Modi and the BJP's hands assuring them of a hands down victory. So the seniors in the Congress party or those who have Rahul Gandhi's ears should pull down the cap of rationality tightly on his head and concentrate on defeating the BJP. As for the Narendra Modi and Amit Shah combine and for that matter the BJP is not going to take this defeat in the recent Assembly polls lightly. The duo has tasted power and it is heady and therefore not easy to give up easily. So their last card of resort given their background of the Gujarat riots and the involvement in the murders of Haren Pandya and Sohrabuddin which latter cases are still in the courts is to create and orchestrate mayhem. This will be done by having the number of cow lynching cases multiply manifold across India but mainly across the Hindi heartland and stir up the lit fires of the Ram mandir at Ayodhya into an inferno. With civil society thus de-stabilised the time will be ripe to declare a failure of law and order across the country and consequently impose an Emergency a la shades of 1976. With most independent institutions in the country now headed by yes-men chosen from the bureaucracy there will be a tight grip on the administration to throttle the voice of democracy in the country. One hopes that this will not happen but it cannot be discounted since it definitely remains in the realm of possibility.
Another Wicket Falls On Mint Street
One can now possibly surmise about the supposedly hush-hush meeting the PM had with the RBI Governor just about a week before the Nov 19, 2018 RBI board meeting. Leading up to that board meeting there were strong rumours of Urjit Patel's resignation. But then the expected resignation did not come and even the Nov 19 board meeting was described as cordial when it was anticipated that it would be explosive what with one of the Dy Governor laying the groundwork for a confrontation on the Rule 7 Issue in an October '18 lecture. So the deal struck by Modi with Urjit Patel was possibly not to make haste with the resignation but submit it on 10th Dec 2018, a day before the counting of votes for the 3 major States that went to the Assembly polls and as a quid pro quo the Nov 19 board meeting would be handled as a 'business as usual' meeting with no ripples. The idea was that in the public mind Urjit Patel's resignation would remain only for a day being washed away in the maelstrom of media attention on the Assembly election results touted as the semi-finals before the Lok Sabha polls next year. While for Urjit Patel the timing of his resignation was of no consequence but as a face saving gesture he would have the satisfaction of his writ remaining intact through the issues coming before the Nov 19 board meeting. But it is a sad day indeed in the history of RBI that the previous Governor, Raghuram Rajan was not given a customary second term and was accorded a unceremonious exit and now the next incumbent resigning 10 months before his term and ending it for 'personal reasons'. For Urjit Patel who was in the initial days of taking over was branded as a 'rubber stamp' of the incumbent regime but who later showed that he had some spine in him by first standing up to the government on holding interest rates to contain inflation and then not inclined to extend more credit to the MSME sector which was already 20% or more of the prevailing NPA's with banks. See the irony or dichotomy, or call it what you will, in the hamhanded approach of the present government who mindlessly launched Demonetisation and the GST and knocked out the MSME sector and is now picking up a scrap with the RBI to fund that sector knowing full well that this sector's contribution to the current NPA's is large and that any present lending will only add to the NPA's. The approach is create nuisance and then create more nuisance to hide the earlier nuisance with the intention to wear the white cloak of a saviour and cover yourself with glory before the next Lok Sabha polls. With rumours that the recently retired Adhia likely to be called back as the Governor, RBI, we will be sure then that we are run by the Modi 'mafia' if that happens. In line with the appointments to the Niti Aayog and recently the CEA, we should get a competent economist or banking professional who has a strong spine to run the RBI in these troubled times. Postscript: The Governor of the RBI is going to be Shaktikananda Das and not Adhia. Whether it is Satan or Lucifer, both are names of the Devil. And in this context both are part of Modi 's 'mafia', so it does not really matter if it is one or the other. Das is of the infamy of getting RBI to issue 51 circulars in 50 days in the first couple of months post Nov 2016 in the wake of Demonetisation. With this appointment the RBI has become, well and truly, a government department.
*********************************
No comments:
Post a Comment